The markets today, December 4th, 2025, have shown a complex mix of optimism and caution as investors attempt to interpret a series of macroeconomic signals ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. In early U.S. trading during the Asian session, the S&P 500 futures are trending marginally higher, indicating a positive sentiment carried over from Wall Street’s close on Tuesday. This is driven in part by continued momentum in tech stocks and renewed hope that the Fed may be done with its tightening cycle.
One of the biggest headlines on Investing.com was the latest data from the U.S. Labor Department, showing that job openings fell more than expected in October, to the lowest level since March 2021. The JOLTS data reported 8.73 million openings, compared to the anticipated 9.3 million. To me, this marks a critical shift—employers are becoming less eager to hire, which could be a preview of softening labor demand. This could potentially ease inflationary pressure, reinforcing the market’s belief that the Fed’s rate hikes have reached a peak.
Furthermore, we’re also seeing the 10-year Treasury yield continuing its downward move, now hovering around 4.18%, its lowest in over three months. Yields have been declining steadily over the past few weeks, which suggests a significant shift in investor sentiment away from inflation concerns and towards growth and rate cut expectations in 2026. Importantly, the CME FedWatch Tool now shows that the probability of a rate cut as early as March 2026 has increased to over 55%.
Internationally, Chinese equities are struggling again, with the Shanghai Composite closing down 0.8% amid continued worries over weak domestic demand and the unresolved property sector crisis. November’s Caixin Services PMI came in at 51.5, slightly higher than expected, but investors remain unconvinced about the sustainability of China’s recovery. This persistent underperformance in the Chinese economic engine casts a shadow over broader global growth, particularly for export-reliant economies in Asia and Europe. In my view, the sluggishness in China continues to be one of the biggest macro headwinds, especially for commodity markets and global industrial names.
On the commodities side, crude oil futures have dropped again, with WTI now flirting near $71 per barrel, down almost 2% for the session. News from OPEC+ revealing internal disagreements over additional output cuts has unsettled markets. As an analyst, I believe this disunity combined with rising U.S. inventory data (reported by API last night) could exacerbate downside pressure on oil in the short term. Unless global demand picks up, especially from China, I see further weakness in crude—potentially breaking below the $70 technical support level soon.
Meanwhile, gold prices are continuing their surge, now testing the $2,070 resistance level again, after briefly touching a record earlier this week. The weakening dollar and falling yields reinforce bullish momentum in precious metals. From my perspective, gold is increasingly becoming the safe-haven of choice amid geopolitical uncertainty (ongoing in the Middle East and Eastern Europe) and as hedge funds increase allocation in anticipation of a Fed pivot in early 2026.
Overall, sentiment remains constructive in the equity markets, particularly in tech and AI-related plays, which are once again leading thanks to year-end positioning and strong earnings momentum. However, I remain cautious about overstretched valuations in some segments. The market’s resilience seems largely built on the assumption of soft landings, rate cuts, and continued disinflation—any deviation from that narrative could cause volatility to spike going into Q1 2026.